I published a briefing note with Chatham House yesterday on the outlook for end of the Transition in Somalia, and for what comes after. From the conclusions:
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- Indications are that, with continued international support and pressure, Somalia’s Transition Roadmap will continue towards its goal of handing over to a caretaker administration on 20 August, 2012.
- As such, Somalia’s international partners should focus in the next few months on how to transform the momentum injected into the Roadmap process into policy attention and diplomatic support, or pressure, needed to see the caretaker administration develop into more of a government. A more functional government would focus on the provision of services beyond the attention already paid to the security sector.
- The end of the Roadmap will not signal an end to Somalia’s transition. The new administration will face many of the same challenges threatening the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), and some others generated by the Roadmap process itself. However some progress has been made in Mogadishu, and Somalis – especially in civil society and the private sector – are in a position to build upon that base. Constructive international engagement could support that process.
Read the report here: