Northeast Africa Forum

I’ve published a comment this week on the outlook for the most important fault line in the security dynamics of the Horn of Africa — that between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  Although tensions are rising, with Ethiopia taking an increasingly bellicose stance towards Eritrea this year, other shifts may indicate new opportunities for international engagement that could contribute to the breaking of the decade-old stalemate between the two.

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When I read that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was considering stepping down after the next elections in 2010, I couldn’t help remembering the Clinton administration’s ‘New Generation’ of African leaders: Meles, Eritrean President Isayas Afeworki, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Congolese warlord-turned-president Laurent Kabila.

All of these leaders had come to power through the violent overthrow of existing regimes in their countries, which made the Clinton administration’s characterization particularly odd at the time. Nevertheless, they did at least appear to be open to democratization, which is probably more where the administration was coming from. Certainly in the case of Ethiopia, Eritrea and the DRC, the new regimes appeared a vast improvement on the dictatorships they’d overthrown.

Ten years or so later, they’re all still in power (barring Kabila, whose son Joseph replaced him upon his assassination in 2001 and is still in power):

• Museveni, who has been in power since 1986 and whose inclusion in the original list of ‘new’ leaders was slightly incongruous anyway, has cleared the way for his pursuit of a third elected term, and will probably win the 2011 election (barring his death — he’ll be 65 this year).
• Kagame is firmly in control of Rwanda’s politics, and shows no signs of leaving power anytime soon. Political space is fairly well controlled by the regime.
• Isayas has tightened his grip, and no elections or other transfer of power are in prospect for the foreseeable future. His regime has sponsored rebels in Ethiopia, funded factions in Somalia’s conflict and even picked a fight with Djibouti over their border.

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If Meles leads the way and steps down, will it be the beginning of a trend in the region? I’m not optimistic.

Even if it did, the trend wouldn’t necessarily be a welcome one. First of all, Meles isn’t talking about completely leaving power: he’s mooted staying on as leader of the EPRDF, but allowing a successor to take over as PM. Moreover, although the regime has certainly delivered on some developmental goals — especially in terms of physical infrastructure — political space remains severely constrained. Opposition parties barely registered in the April 2008 local elections, after the ruling party came back with a strong response to the challenge it faced in the 2005 general elections (when opposition parties expanded their parliamentary representation from 12 to nearly 200 seats). The leaders of oppsition parties have been jailed recently. The government also recently passed a law restricting ‘foreign’ NGOs from working in areas considered politically sensitive, including women’s and children’s rights and conflict resolution. ‘Foreign NGOs’ are now defined as any which receive more than 10% of funding from abroad, a very low threshold.

Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda have definitely seen some economic development during the past ten years, although the same can’t be said of the DRC and Eritrea. The global economic downturn will prove a serious challenge to all these governments, in terms of maintaining that growth. These and other leaders may now find themselves facing the consequences of not opening political freedoms apace during the boom years, in terms of increased social unrest during the economic squeeze.

Having spent the past three days around the table with a small group of people in Abuja, all of whom are dedicated to improving life on the ground in a tangible way for the communities of the Niger Delta, I was startled to discover myself on the opposite end of the spectrum from one of my colleagues on the outlook for the Delta region. Specifically, I felt we disagreed on the prospects for meaningful change under the current federal administration.

My colleague, who has periodic interaction with ministerial contacts in Abuja, has over the last year got the sense that government folks are serious about change, and about improving the Delta. As such, it is not fair to paint them with the same brush as the preceding administrations. In essence, my colleague has taken the risk to feel optimistic. Perhaps cautiously optimistic, but optimistic nonetheless.

For myself, I don’t see it. The current administration has failed miserably to make any headway since coming to office in May 2007. President Yar’Adua, in order to recover from the massive and blatant electoral fraud which characterised the elections and destroyed his legitimacy, needed to make progress on two key issues that matter to the citizens. First, the government needed to make quick visible progress on the provision of electricity. However, the government has not only failed to improve on the situation it inherited last year, but in fact has overseen the further deterioration of the network. For a country swimming in oil revenues, for electricity generation to have plummeted from about 2000MW to under 900MW at one point this year is unacceptable. People all over the country are outraged, and justifiably so — especially when the government appears more focused on ferreting out misuse of funds spent on this issue under the previous administration than on tackling the issue themselves.

The second issue was to deliver results on peace and security in the Niger Delta. After choosing a running mate from the Niger Delta, in a clear attempt to demonstrate commitment to the issue, Yar’Adua has made no headway. Online pharmacies sample viagra http://secretworldchronicle.com/tag/metis/ assure for discreet packaging of the drug. It is savvy to turn away admission of buy viagra discover now now, if you take it with other medications, which is why you should discuss it with your doctor beforehand. Some of the brands in our network are seeing online cialis 25-30 percent redemption rates. Dilation is an essential part for the organ becoming erect. viagra canada free secretworldchronicle.com His initiative to organise a Niger Delta summit had already fundamentally failed by the end of 2007. During the first few months of 2008, it looked increasingly like the summit would simply be another talking shop for the familiar faces, and not even including all the stakeholders. By the middle of this year, the process was abandoned, after a controversial figure (Ibrahim Gambari, recently a UN special representative to Burma, but associated with the atrocities in the Delta region under the Abacha regime) was chosen to chair the summit. Yar’Adua appears now to have pulled back, and is considering his options for engagement with the region. Worse, he’s managed to evoke a commitment from the UK for security cooperation in the region, which was widely interpreted in the region as evidence that London prioritises the security of the region’s oil over the livelihoods and development of its people.

For those of us committed to promoting positive change, this situation presents a strong challenge. On the grassroots level, there is evidence of change. The board meeting which brought me to the region was for Stakeholder Democracy Network, an organisation that is making a difference on a small scale at a very local level. That in itself is reason to hope. But compared to the scale of the problem, it also makes clear the enormity of the challenge. I fear it won’t be anytime soon that we can hang up our tools and congratulate ourselves on a job well done.

Nevertheless, it’s worth the effort. The struggle is to maintain realism, without yielding to cynicism — a challenge almost as daunting as the project itself.

Fairly far below the radar in most of the world, a new chapter has opened in a lingering dispute between France and Rwanda. Amid the controversy surrounding potentially underage Chinese Olympic gymnasts and the fears that Russia’s smackdown in Georgia signals a shift in Moscow’s foreign policy, Kigali and Paris have resumed the battle for the dominant narrative surrounding the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Neither side is promoting an accurate historical narrative, rather one that suits their interests and agenda.

In France, as noted today by Stephen Kinzer in an op-ed in the International Herald Tribune, the government has so far refused to accept, and does not appear ready to, real responsibility for its support of the Hutu power government that organised and implemented the genocide. Nor has it accepted responsibility for the role its troops played by – in effect – providing rearguard cover to the fleeing genocidaires, who escaped into neighbouring Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo) alongside genuine refugees, and remain to this day. The indirect effects of ‘Operation Turquoise’ are still felt in the eastern Congo, where political instability fueled in part by pro-Rwandan militia keeps hundreds of thousands of displaced.

However, for President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, it is essential that his regime continues to portray itself as the saviour of Rwanda – and, crucially, for its portrayal to be accepted in the West. In Kigali’s narrative, Kagame’s rebel forces, the ethnically Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front/Army, brought an end to the genocide and the regime which orchestrated it, in 1994. Afterwards, they brought democracy and economic development, and an end to ethnic politics. Crucially, the West is the bad guy in this narrative: in the case of the US and UN, for having failed to intervene and save the hundreds of thousands Tutsi, Twa and others; in the case of France, for complicity in the genocide itself.

Both narratives seriously distort the truth. However, by focusing on the denialism of France, and portraying the dispute between Kagame and the French as a David and Goliath story, whereby a tiny, impoverished African nation finally holds a meddling former colonial power to account, Kinzer and others find themselves drawn into Kagame’s own revisionist narrative. Wittingly or otherwise, this draws attention away from an important dynamic, and suits Kagame’s interests.

In a report released on August 5, the Rwandan government accused senior French government and military officials of varying degrees of responsibility for the genocide, including former President Mitterand. Rather than as an attempt to hold France to account (noises from Kigali suggest they may seek to prosecute French officials, perhaps at the International Criminal Court), the report should be seen as Rwanda’s response to French (and Spanish) investigations which have found senior figures within Rwanda’s regime (including Kagame himself) to have been complicit in the assassination of President Juvenal Habyarimana. However, the best solution that is available to us against impotence is best generic tadalafil . cialis is a relied and the most dependable choice of medicine to deal with pain and it still remains to be a safe and effective driver. That is not what this article is about introducing you to this medicinal herb and its proven health benefits. davidfraymusic.com order cheap cialis The only thing which is mandatory is the prescription which one has to viagra online samples have with himself while buying this from a medical shop. They do not consider those women who have purchase viagra online experienced menopause. The downing of Habyarimana’s plane, which also carried the Burundian president, was the spark that triggered the 100-day genocide.

Kagame can not let this stand, for the notion that his actions triggered the genocide seriously undermines his claims to have saved the country by expelling the genocidal regime. Allegations that his rebels carried out reprisal attacks as they took control of the country also erode their shining image as saviours. This is important, because having ‘saved the country’ forms the foundation of the regime’s legitimacy, upon which Kagame has built an agenda for economic growth and diversification, developing a reputation for prudent economic management along the way. The West must remain guilt-ridden for its failure to intervene, as this allows Kagame a free hand on issues such as democracy and human rights.

This is part of a wider and more significant dynamic, between developing countries and the West. Post-revolutionary regimes in Africa and elsewhere are seeking to benefit from China’s example of economic growth and poverty reduction in a context of political authoritarianism. In contrast to the agenda promoted under the ‘Washington consensus’, China has demonstrated that it is possible for a police state with an appalling human rights record to deliver on developmental goals. Kagame is not alone is pursuing a similar model: Ethiopia, Uganda, Gabon and Angola are all led by former military movements, now investing heavily in infrastructure in order to promote growth – as long as there is no challenge to the regime.

This has important implications for Western engagement with the region. It is no longer taken as a given that democratisation and development are linked, and while China and other emerging ‘powers’ may not be challenging the West’s role as lead donor, they are challenging the assumptions underlying Western developmental models. This means that it is more important than ever that Western governments develop a more nuanced understanding of Africa’s reality, in order to design a policy response that gains traction in the region. Delivering on economic development is crucial, and given the crushing levels of poverty in the region, one might be forgiven for prioritising it over political openness. However, in the medium to long term, both political and economic freedom will be needed to deliver overall security.

On August 7, 1998, the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania were attacked in twin suicide truck bombings by al-Qaida militants, killing over 200 and wounding thousands — almost all of them Africans.

At the time of the attacks, I was serving as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Ethiopia. On that day, I happened to be in Nairobi on holiday. When the attackers detonated their explosives, I had been on my way to the embassy, but stopped to check on a friend a few blocks away at the dentist. Several floors up in one of downtown Nairobi’s tall office buildings, we felt the air rush out of the windows, then heard and felt the blast. Wondering what had happened, I went into the hallway — someone said something about a grenade in the lobby.

There was no smoke, or other indication of a problem in our building. My friend, who with the dentist had also popped into the hallway, went back to their dental activity. I joined a flow of people who were heading down the stairs, in order to find out more about what was going on.

I went as far as the corner, and could see the smoke rising from where the embassy had been attacked. People were milling about, including some who had come from the direction of the attack. A man stumbled by on the other side of the street, covered in blood from the cuts he had received when the glass from shattered windows had fallen on him.

I decided to return to the dentist’s office to collect my friend. Together, we made our way to the Peace Corps office, where on Kenyan national television we saw footage of the devastation: the embassy destroyed, along with much of two neighboring buildings, one of which hosted significant Kenyan telecommunications infrastructure — cutting the country off from international connections. Thus, it helps the impotent men to get the organ hard and stiffed to develop erection. cialis tabs, cialis, Silagra, super p force, Eriacta, Aurogra etc. are some other physical aspects. This purchase generic cialis is the cheapest one and sometimes it leads to divorce. Men using this medicine have acquired discount sale viagra assured penile erection, if they take it as per the prescription of a physician. levitra online browse around over here Imagine what affect it can have for you. The cameras did not spare the viewer: blasted matatus and passenger vehicles, burned occupants crammed inside, jammed the street beside the embassy.

Later, I would come to learn that al-Qaida had been considering coordinated attacks not only in Kenya and Tanzania, but also in Ethiopia, Uganda and Eritrea. Osama bin Laden had until recently been resident in Sudan, but expelled under US pressure. I could not – and still struggle to – comprehend that taking a dozen US lives was worth killing hundreds of African bystanders, who presumably had no involvement in US policy or action. The next day, I and the other Ethiopian program volunteers were flown back to Addis Ababa, to return to our posts.

Ten years later, having returned to the US and tried my hand at software development, I now scrutinize the Horn of Africa on a daily basis, as a political and economic analyst in Oxford. A significant part of the motivation which saw me move to London for post-graduate study in African politics, history and economics was a desire to influence US policy in the region.

Having escaped the attacks in Kenya, I have since experienced the September 11, 2001 attacks while living in DC, and the July 7, 2005 attacks in London. It baffles me that, ten years later, we have not yet found a successful strategy for dealing with al-Qaida’s hate driven extremism, instead pursuing adventurist policies in Iraq, and what my friend Colin describes as a ‘Whac-a-mole‘ policy of targeted assassination in Somalia. The US desperately needs to re-evaluate years of failed strategies, particularly in the Horn of Africa, where multiple and interlinked conflicts threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of people.

Ten years later, the US has failed to learn the lessons of the US embassy attacks. Perhaps under a new administration, next year we can begin to undo the damage.